Saturday, April 26, 2008
Price Action
Very important advice from hypostomus! Draw these support and resistance lines in your chart before you even take a trade, Dobbes. The 15m, 1h, and daily charts will help you to identify them. To learn price action you need a little background information:The market is a battleground for buyers and sellers. These two opposing groups come together every day and challenge each other to gain and retain control over the market. Now if you wake up one morning seeing that price is aggressively moving down, obviously sellers possess ferocious power. Going long, or even scalping on the long side is thus more challenging. If price is being rejected at resistance, sellers are starting to gain control and buyers will not come in until support is reached. Those minor swings you observe on the way down are just reactions, nothing more. They are not buying opportunites! You can observe this cycle in any market and this knowledge is what an experienced trader exploits to make a fortune.Thoroughly read through what I wrote above again and you have a jumpstart toward learning price action. Now comes your screen time. Practice, practice.
Saturday, February 2, 2008
mark1
11-22-07 09:46 AMDisclaimer, the stuff I'm about to write is more an internal dialogue than anything else, Hope someone will find it helpful, ignore the awful English ;-)A few thoughts about AHG: So you were lucky enough to find a great guy (Anek), who in the spirit of sharing , wanted to teach you a system in other words he gave you for free his edge.Then how do you proceed in order to learn and become proficent with this sys?First the easy part (no disrispect Anek, you know as an experienced trader, I'm telling the truth).Learn to recognize a market structure HH HL & LH LL (MS)with a glance , at this stage it doesn't matter if your base chart shows a MS in a downtrend and your anchor chart shows a retracement of an uptrend, stick with your base chart and learn to spot the freaking MS, can you count to 4? End of the course...say what?Yup once you are gone through all the madness of trying to refine the basic system , because you are farking always looking for the perfect sys aren't you? Yup the one that never fails and gives you 100 winners out of 100 trades (c'mon make me laugh and tell me it's not true. I tell you what is true ,even if your head tells you it's not possible, your subconscious is always trying to outsmart the system), you' ll go back to lesson 1 and you realize it was really all you needed to know, but using this knowledge with discipline and truly accepting the concept of propabilities, is the difference between a winner and a loser. So the long journey is almost unavoidable.More about this later.Ok MS is now crystal clear, what's next , Supports and Resistances these are the core of trading , if you think about it each pattern each structure is the product of support and resistance, buying low selling high, shorting high covering low. Price action.A confirmed support or resistance is made by price rejected at the same area where it formed a previous pivot point.Once Resistance is violated it becomes possible Support, it becomes confirmed support when the price is rejected at the same area. Flip the concept for Support.DoubleTops, Double Bottoms and their failure, easy concept right? no need to explain further.W's and M's, very similar to DB and DT , ok good.Head & Shoulder and failure <---- you need screentime to recognize this powerful formation, it's well worth it.Triangles, Coils, Wedges whatever you name them, you know what they look like, we showed a lot here, you have seen how brutal they can be...kaboom :-)Congestion, Trading Ranges, Rectangular formation, you've seen them, you know you expect a breakout/down. Trendlines and Channels, a trend line is formed when you can draw a diagonal line between two or more price pivot points these alone give you an edge, I' ve seen traders making a living just by selling and buying trendline breaks,and I've seen traders making a living just by buying and selling trendline rejections, if you want to know how to draw channels with points 1,2,3 , I'll post a chart.Ok , now you know all the weapons in your arsenal, so you should be a winner , no problem....Slow down warrior that was the easy stuff.
11-22-07 09:46 AM
Disclaimer, the stuff I'm about to write is more an internal dialogue than anything else, Hope someone will find it helpful, ignore the awful English ;-)A few thoughts about AHG: So you were lucky enough to find a great guy (Anek), who in the spirit of sharing , wanted to teach you a system in other words he gave you for free his edge.Then how do you proceed in order to learn and become proficent with this sys?First the easy part (no disrispect Anek, you know as an experienced trader, I'm telling the truth).Learn to recognize a market structure HH HL & LH LL (MS)with a glance , at this stage it doesn't matter if your base chart shows a MS in a downtrend and your anchor chart shows a retracement of an uptrend, stick with your base chart and learn to spot the freaking MS, can you count to 4? End of the course...say what?Yup once you are gone through all the madness of trying to refine the basic system , because you are farking always looking for the perfect sys aren't you? Yup the one that never fails and gives you 100 winners out of 100 trades (c'mon make me laugh and tell me it's not true. I tell you what is true ,even if your head tells you it's not possible, your subconscious is always trying to outsmart the system), you' ll go back to lesson 1 and you realize it was really all you needed to know, but using this knowledge with discipline and truly accepting the concept of propabilities, is the difference between a winner and a loser. So the long journey is almost unavoidable.More about this later.Ok MS is now crystal clear, what's next , Supports and Resistances these are the core of trading , if you think about it each pattern each structure is the product of support and resistance, buying low selling high, shorting high covering low. Price action.A confirmed support or resistance is made by price rejected at the same area where it formed a previous pivot point.Once Resistance is violated it becomes possible Support, it becomes confirmed support when the price is rejected at the same area. Flip the concept for Support.DoubleTops, Double Bottoms and their failure, easy concept right? no need to explain further.W's and M's, very similar to DB and DT , ok good.Head & Shoulder and failure <---- you need screentime to recognize this powerful formation, it's well worth it.Triangles, Coils, Wedges whatever you name them, you know what they look like, we showed a lot here, you have seen how brutal they can be...kaboom :-)Congestion, Trading Ranges, Rectangular formation, you've seen them, you know you expect a breakout/down. Trendlines and Channels, a trend line is formed when you can draw a diagonal line between two or more price pivot points these alone give you an edge, I' ve seen traders making a living just by selling and buying trendline breaks,and I've seen traders making a living just by buying and selling trendline rejections, if you want to know how to draw channels with points 1,2,3 , I'll post a chart.Ok , now you know all the weapons in your arsenal, so you should be a winner , no problem....Slow down warrior that was the easy stuff. To be continued
11-22-07 12:23 PM
Part 2If you have been following this thread it should be quite clear that buying and selling a confirmed MS is really all you need to do to make money, yes there are refinements like pattern recogniton and tape reading, sure.Yes I'm pretty bold here and I challenge you, go back and look at 3 months of 1000v or even 1 minute charts and buy and sell every confirmed MS HH-HLx2 LL-LHx2 you see on your chart, heck give it some margin and apply1 point of slippage to enter and 1 points to exit plus commissions. (man your execution sucks ).Define a rule to enter a trade (engulfing bar, break of n ticks below/above previous pivot, choose one...) and stick with it, ALWAYS.Close your position only when the trend has confirmed a reversal with a MS on the opposite direction.Skip the dead zone(11:30,14:00), not compulsory though.Yup you have several small losses, several B/E and a few huge winners, in the end you are profitable (gee just like Anek said...)Ok now you start papertrading, because you need to internalize the system, your execution has to be flawless, but something unexpected happens. You are not able to stick to the plan, you are counting every tick like this was the trade of your life, you just experienced a streak of small losing trades and you are not able to click the T button again. You enter a trade and you see a few $$ in your P&L and you feel the urge to close the trade, you actually sell without a real confirmation of change of the trend. Sometimes you think you were smart, because you saved a few points, but when the real move comes you are out way to soon and all the points you saved now are just peanuts compared to what you missed.Jesus, so what do you do? You start again, you read everything you can about the market, you study market analysis with obsession, you add (god forgive you) a new indicator, heck let's make it 3 new indicators. "If i know everything there's to know about the market I won't experience a streak of losses, that's my goal. Losing is an awful feeling, I want to avoid that with all my strenght, I want to be right, that's what my parents, my friends, the freaking society taught me, I need to be right to be succesful." ( Dead of a trader)Man and this is only papertrading, think what will happen when money is on the line.So how do we shut down this internal voice?I'll try to define with the help of Mr. M Douglas what an edge is and the probability game.Let's start from the beginning.What's the market? At its basic level the mkt is a series of up and down tics that form patterns and MS.You recognize these patterns and you know that there is a higher probability the mkt will move in one direction over the other, this is your edge.But here is where the problem lies, a pattern in our subconscious implies a consistent outcome, but the reality is each pattern is a unique moment of the mkt, it may look exactly like other patterns you have seen before, but the underlying force behind a pattern are traders, and traders who contribuite to the formation of one pattern and their rational to enter a trade, are always different from the previous pattern.Remember it takes just one trader, just one to produce a failed pattern or a confirmed pattern, how can you expect to know what the outcome of that particular, unique trade is if just one trader can change everything, you can try to learn all the TA you like you can try to read the minds of all the traders in the mkt (good luck with that)You don't know what the outcome of one trade will be, nobody knows, you don't know if the next trade will be a winner or a loser, nobody knows.What does it mean? It means that the distribuition of winning and losing trades is random, it means the outcome of a pattern/trade is completely random relative to one another.You should start thinking like a Casino or a professional gambler, they know they have an edge even a small one (i think a casino has about a 3-4% edge, not sure about the precise figure), they don't try to predict or know in advance the outcome of each individual event, they know that given a large enough number of events their edge will work.Once you truly internalize this concept, the fear of trading will go away and you'll let the mkt tell you what to do, you 've entered the ZONE. (yes it sounds easy ehe, 5 % can make it, it's not easy)I'm not talking about you, you. I'm talking about the little sucker inside you, the one who tries to predict the future, the one who knows that the nasdaq is going to tank if it goes to 2100, the one who swear at the end of the day because it was scared to trade the never ending trend. You have an edge, trade the farking edge.geez I'm good
11-22-07 09:46 AM
Disclaimer, the stuff I'm about to write is more an internal dialogue than anything else, Hope someone will find it helpful, ignore the awful English ;-)A few thoughts about AHG: So you were lucky enough to find a great guy (Anek), who in the spirit of sharing , wanted to teach you a system in other words he gave you for free his edge.Then how do you proceed in order to learn and become proficent with this sys?First the easy part (no disrispect Anek, you know as an experienced trader, I'm telling the truth).Learn to recognize a market structure HH HL & LH LL (MS)with a glance , at this stage it doesn't matter if your base chart shows a MS in a downtrend and your anchor chart shows a retracement of an uptrend, stick with your base chart and learn to spot the freaking MS, can you count to 4? End of the course...say what?Yup once you are gone through all the madness of trying to refine the basic system , because you are farking always looking for the perfect sys aren't you? Yup the one that never fails and gives you 100 winners out of 100 trades (c'mon make me laugh and tell me it's not true. I tell you what is true ,even if your head tells you it's not possible, your subconscious is always trying to outsmart the system), you' ll go back to lesson 1 and you realize it was really all you needed to know, but using this knowledge with discipline and truly accepting the concept of propabilities, is the difference between a winner and a loser. So the long journey is almost unavoidable.More about this later.Ok MS is now crystal clear, what's next , Supports and Resistances these are the core of trading , if you think about it each pattern each structure is the product of support and resistance, buying low selling high, shorting high covering low. Price action.A confirmed support or resistance is made by price rejected at the same area where it formed a previous pivot point.Once Resistance is violated it becomes possible Support, it becomes confirmed support when the price is rejected at the same area. Flip the concept for Support.DoubleTops, Double Bottoms and their failure, easy concept right? no need to explain further.W's and M's, very similar to DB and DT , ok good.Head & Shoulder and failure <---- you need screentime to recognize this powerful formation, it's well worth it.Triangles, Coils, Wedges whatever you name them, you know what they look like, we showed a lot here, you have seen how brutal they can be...kaboom :-)Congestion, Trading Ranges, Rectangular formation, you've seen them, you know you expect a breakout/down. Trendlines and Channels, a trend line is formed when you can draw a diagonal line between two or more price pivot points these alone give you an edge, I' ve seen traders making a living just by selling and buying trendline breaks,and I've seen traders making a living just by buying and selling trendline rejections, if you want to know how to draw channels with points 1,2,3 , I'll post a chart.Ok , now you know all the weapons in your arsenal, so you should be a winner , no problem....Slow down warrior that was the easy stuff. To be continued
11-22-07 12:23 PM
Part 2If you have been following this thread it should be quite clear that buying and selling a confirmed MS is really all you need to do to make money, yes there are refinements like pattern recogniton and tape reading, sure.Yes I'm pretty bold here and I challenge you, go back and look at 3 months of 1000v or even 1 minute charts and buy and sell every confirmed MS HH-HLx2 LL-LHx2 you see on your chart, heck give it some margin and apply1 point of slippage to enter and 1 points to exit plus commissions. (man your execution sucks ).Define a rule to enter a trade (engulfing bar, break of n ticks below/above previous pivot, choose one...) and stick with it, ALWAYS.Close your position only when the trend has confirmed a reversal with a MS on the opposite direction.Skip the dead zone(11:30,14:00), not compulsory though.Yup you have several small losses, several B/E and a few huge winners, in the end you are profitable (gee just like Anek said...)Ok now you start papertrading, because you need to internalize the system, your execution has to be flawless, but something unexpected happens. You are not able to stick to the plan, you are counting every tick like this was the trade of your life, you just experienced a streak of small losing trades and you are not able to click the T button again. You enter a trade and you see a few $$ in your P&L and you feel the urge to close the trade, you actually sell without a real confirmation of change of the trend. Sometimes you think you were smart, because you saved a few points, but when the real move comes you are out way to soon and all the points you saved now are just peanuts compared to what you missed.Jesus, so what do you do? You start again, you read everything you can about the market, you study market analysis with obsession, you add (god forgive you) a new indicator, heck let's make it 3 new indicators. "If i know everything there's to know about the market I won't experience a streak of losses, that's my goal. Losing is an awful feeling, I want to avoid that with all my strenght, I want to be right, that's what my parents, my friends, the freaking society taught me, I need to be right to be succesful." ( Dead of a trader)Man and this is only papertrading, think what will happen when money is on the line.So how do we shut down this internal voice?I'll try to define with the help of Mr. M Douglas what an edge is and the probability game.Let's start from the beginning.What's the market? At its basic level the mkt is a series of up and down tics that form patterns and MS.You recognize these patterns and you know that there is a higher probability the mkt will move in one direction over the other, this is your edge.But here is where the problem lies, a pattern in our subconscious implies a consistent outcome, but the reality is each pattern is a unique moment of the mkt, it may look exactly like other patterns you have seen before, but the underlying force behind a pattern are traders, and traders who contribuite to the formation of one pattern and their rational to enter a trade, are always different from the previous pattern.Remember it takes just one trader, just one to produce a failed pattern or a confirmed pattern, how can you expect to know what the outcome of that particular, unique trade is if just one trader can change everything, you can try to learn all the TA you like you can try to read the minds of all the traders in the mkt (good luck with that)You don't know what the outcome of one trade will be, nobody knows, you don't know if the next trade will be a winner or a loser, nobody knows.What does it mean? It means that the distribuition of winning and losing trades is random, it means the outcome of a pattern/trade is completely random relative to one another.You should start thinking like a Casino or a professional gambler, they know they have an edge even a small one (i think a casino has about a 3-4% edge, not sure about the precise figure), they don't try to predict or know in advance the outcome of each individual event, they know that given a large enough number of events their edge will work.Once you truly internalize this concept, the fear of trading will go away and you'll let the mkt tell you what to do, you 've entered the ZONE. (yes it sounds easy ehe, 5 % can make it, it's not easy)I'm not talking about you, you. I'm talking about the little sucker inside you, the one who tries to predict the future, the one who knows that the nasdaq is going to tank if it goes to 2100, the one who swear at the end of the day because it was scared to trade the never ending trend. You have an edge, trade the farking edge.geez I'm good
Monday, January 21, 2008
熊市获利的锐利武器 -- 11 种超反向EFTs
上周五由于出乎预料的 Job Report 触发了大盘大跌。新年开始的第一周，三大指数已经分别累计下跌了：Dow 13261/12800 -461 -3.4%, S&P 1467/1411, -56， -3.8% Nasdaq 2653/2504, -150, -5.6% 创下了多年来第一周下跌的新纪录。这波跌势，可以追索到去年10月上旬。更危险的是主要市场指数都跌破了各自的关键支撑，而市场情绪还远未达到极端，Rydex Nova/Ursa Ratio (牛/熊基金）在一周多前还创了新高。种种迹象表明这种趋势还将继续较长时间。TA 和波段周期分析表明这一波跌势会持续到三月底。市场的运动总是波澜起伏的，但总趋势是跌多涨少，直到第一季度末。从更大的范围看，这波下降还是6 年牛市的中期调整，（从去年十月算6 个月）从第二季度开始，市场会逐步恢复，并在年底之前再创新高。
面对中期小型熊市，投资者不应惊慌，而要做好应变的准备。提高现金水平，少动多看，将资金转到抗跌的板块中去。这些都是常用的措施。但都是被动的。覆巢之下，焉有完卵？虽然是少跌，但还是会跌，无处可藏。这里介绍一个以攻为守的主动方法，在熊市中会更有效果。
在熊市获利的锐利武器就是超反向ETFs ( Exchange Trading Fund) 下面的 11 种ETFs 都是Beta 2 的超反向ETFs。即指数或正向基金跌一点， 超反向ETFs 涨两点。相信其中的一些 ETF 很多人已经知道了。不要小看这些 超反向ETFs，如果应用得当，也会获利惊人的。以昨天为例：Dow -1.98%, S&P -2.46%, QQQQ -4.3%, RUT - 3.14% , 而相应的超反向EFTs 获利回报为：大盘指数超反向EFTs 1/4/08 一天的回报
QID Ultrashort QQQQ +3.55/42.45 +9%
TWM Ultrashort Russell 2000 +5.11/78.49 +6.94%
SDS Ultrashort S&P500 +2.63/57.85 +4.76%
DXD Ultrashort Dow 30 +2.17/53.65 +4.22%MZZ Ultrashort MidCap400 +3.15/59.8 +5.56%
再看 TWM, SDS, QID 三个月的表现，从10/4 到 1/4 它们的回报分别为：27%，17%，和 10.5% （见图）
TWM, SDS, QID 三个月回报率比较
专业板块超反向EFTs 1/4/08 一天的回报
SSG ultrashort semiconductor +7.36/70.25 11.7%
REW UltraShort Technology +5.10/60.90 +9.05%
EEV UltraShort Emerging Mrkts +4.93/78.99 +6.51%
SRS UltraShort Real Estate +7.56/127.25 +6.32%
SKF UltraShort Financials +5.8 /112.29 +5.42%
SCC ultrasort consumer +4.2/96 +4.6%
专业板块超反向EFTs 的回报更是惊人，以SRS, SKF 和 SSG 为例，从十月起，三个月的回报分别为：55%，52% 和 38% （见图) 实际上，Real Estate 板块已经进入熊市两年，Financials 板块也已经进入熊市十个月了。要择机入市并不难。
SSG, SKF, SRS 三个月回报率比较
面对中期小型熊市，投资者不应惊慌，而要做好应变的准备。提高现金水平，少动多看，将资金转到抗跌的板块中去。这些都是常用的措施。但都是被动的。覆巢之下，焉有完卵？虽然是少跌，但还是会跌，无处可藏。这里介绍一个以攻为守的主动方法，在熊市中会更有效果。
在熊市获利的锐利武器就是超反向ETFs ( Exchange Trading Fund) 下面的 11 种ETFs 都是Beta 2 的超反向ETFs。即指数或正向基金跌一点， 超反向ETFs 涨两点。相信其中的一些 ETF 很多人已经知道了。不要小看这些 超反向ETFs，如果应用得当，也会获利惊人的。以昨天为例：Dow -1.98%, S&P -2.46%, QQQQ -4.3%, RUT - 3.14% , 而相应的超反向EFTs 获利回报为：大盘指数超反向EFTs 1/4/08 一天的回报
QID Ultrashort QQQQ +3.55/42.45 +9%
TWM Ultrashort Russell 2000 +5.11/78.49 +6.94%
SDS Ultrashort S&P500 +2.63/57.85 +4.76%
DXD Ultrashort Dow 30 +2.17/53.65 +4.22%MZZ Ultrashort MidCap400 +3.15/59.8 +5.56%
再看 TWM, SDS, QID 三个月的表现，从10/4 到 1/4 它们的回报分别为：27%，17%，和 10.5% （见图）
TWM, SDS, QID 三个月回报率比较
专业板块超反向EFTs 1/4/08 一天的回报
SSG ultrashort semiconductor +7.36/70.25 11.7%
REW UltraShort Technology +5.10/60.90 +9.05%
EEV UltraShort Emerging Mrkts +4.93/78.99 +6.51%
SRS UltraShort Real Estate +7.56/127.25 +6.32%
SKF UltraShort Financials +5.8 /112.29 +5.42%
SCC ultrasort consumer +4.2/96 +4.6%
专业板块超反向EFTs 的回报更是惊人，以SRS, SKF 和 SSG 为例，从十月起，三个月的回报分别为：55%，52% 和 38% （见图) 实际上，Real Estate 板块已经进入熊市两年，Financials 板块也已经进入熊市十个月了。要择机入市并不难。
SSG, SKF, SRS 三个月回报率比较
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Monday: Market ClosedTuesday: Earnings Before: ABK**, BAC**, CSX, DD, FITB, JEC, JNJ**, UNH, WB Earnings After: AAPL**, NSC, TXN Eco: Richmond Fed
Wednesday: Earnings Before: ABT, COH, COP, DAL, GD, LUV, MOT**, PFE**, STJ, UTX Earnings After: COF, EBAY, GILD, SOV, SYMC Eco: Mortgage applications
Thursday: Earnings Before: DHR, F**, KMB, LEN, LMT, NOK, T**, TXT, XRX Earnings After: AMGN**, BRCM, ETFC, JAVA, JNPR, KLAC, MSFT** Eco: Existing Home Sales
Friday: Earnings Before: CAT**, HOG, HON** Earnings After: NONE
Friday, January 4, 2008
2008 -- 石油，黄金， 美元,人民币及其它。。。
原油今天终于见到了长久期盼的 $100/b. 虽然只有两个lot, 是做出来的，但近期就会见到收在 $100 以上的日子。 虽然在2008 年的某一天，也许会见到 $120 的原油，但到达 $100 后，原油的向下校正也就不会远了。 原因是原油的高价，不是因为供需关系失衡产生的，而是由美元贬值，地缘政治紧张，等非供需关系引起的，因此，不会持久。 今天的黄金价格在股市大跌中大涨，反映了对金融危机和经济的不确定性的恐慌。黄金越来越成为美元的替代品而备受青睐。只要弱势美元的国策不改变，美元贬值的趋势不止，黄金价格就会持续上涨。2008 黄金价格破 $1000 已经浮上了台面。（但近期也面临调整。）美元的跌势在 2008 会继续。Fed 和 美国财长保尔森并没有计划让美元坚挺。也没有切实可行的计划做到这一点。只要双赤字继续，美元的颓势就不会扭转。中国的GDP 高速发展会支撑人民币继续升值，2008 会破 ￥7 vs $1 大关。但RMB 升值会对劳动力密集的中小出口企业造成很大压力。又由于美国经济的缓慢增长，将对中国的经济发展产生负面影响，最终将在09年的上半年明显影响 GDP 发展，引发全球性经济的衰退。对，说的是09年不是08 年 。08年到三月底以前都是跌势，之后会好的让人不可置信。牛市会维持到09年初，但那是最后的一冲。八年的牛市行将完结。真正的全球性经济衰退是从09年第二季度开始。中国在经历了30年高速增长后，也将第一次面对经济缓慢增长，甚至停滞不前的考验。美国经济则将深陷泥潭。
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
青蛙的思路 VS. MM的思路
发信人: vankie (似水流年), 信区: Stock标 题: 综述一下俺本周的思路发信站: BBS (Tue Nov 13 23:21:10 2007)1. 这是一轮比8月更为猛烈的correction, down trend已经形成，暂时不要奢求反转。2. 严重超跌的市场，未有整理的情况下200日线击穿，VIX高于30。。。这样的市场在200日线附近借消息面发生报复性反弹，属于正常现象，不需要过分解释。3. OE周机构有将股价一定程度拉起杀扑的动机，消息面也有所支持，因此本周料不会出现新低。4. 今日反弹量能不足（昨天是veteran's day，因此不作为参考），下盘不稳。5. 这波反弹可能以大盘10日线和双顶颈线为主要阻力，点位区间为NAZ 2705附近，DOW13450附近。那么操作主线也就不言而喻。发信人: qiuzhihaoyue (秋之皓月), 信区: Stock标 题: Re: 综述一下俺本周的思路发信站: BBS (Wed Nov 14 01:07:48 2007)错!错!错!--发信人: qiuzhihaoyue (秋之皓月), 信区: Stock标 题: Re: 综述一下俺本周的思路发信站: BBS (Wed Nov 14 01:29:27 2007)【 在 vankie (似水流年) 的大作中提到: 】: 哦，大侠给俺纠纠错？一看就没玩过熊市...走熊的特点: 买, 必套之... 绝无获利的机会...偶今天盘前进AAPL @ 160.7, 反手卖单放在161.99; BIDU IN @ 310, 反手卖单放在了313.9...一眨眼... 走了... 不得不在卖出价之上追回...若走熊... 今天这样的高开, 必成套, 决不会高打高走... 让DT有获利的机会, 所以,跳高是为轧空... 高收是逼空, 明天继续跳高轧空... 高收逼空, 今,明,后三天80%的可能是三连阳, 而且是巨大的那种阳线...让满手CASH的踏空者...往股长叹...任何盘中的所利筹码, 出了就拿不回...BIDU 今天涨$40, 收盘你敢进吗? 不敢, 那好... 明天再拉$40...你的追吗...不敢...接着上... 过$430 后再整理...然后... 一到两周后, 再拉升...--发信人: qiuzhihaoyue (秋之皓月), 信区: Stock标 题: Re: Re: 综述一下俺本周的思路发信站: BBS (Wed Nov 14 01:34:20 2007)【 在 blueyaun (sky) 的大作中提到: 】: 到14000整个downtrend都破了:(然后, 你就追了... 然后,向下及杀...哇, 妈妈啊... 三重顶... 逃命...割肉...你割完... 一个旱地拔葱...新高...你又踏空...哈哈....--发信人: qiuzhihaoyue (秋之皓月), 信区: Stock标 题: Re: 综述一下俺本周的思路发信站: BBS (Wed Nov 14 01:42:06 2007)【 在 lOOkg (胖仔@幼儿园小班) 的大作中提到: 】: Orz: 受益匪浅: GS三连阳且几乎没有overlap是不是也是这个道理?: ..大跌之后... 个个吓破苦胆... 有钱的不敢买... 浅套的, 解套就逃, 小利的抓了就跑...乐坏了MM,一边拉一边收便宜筹码...GS, 明天新高... 4周内$300+...--发信人: ichappysky (波波), 信区: Stock标 题: Re: 综述一下俺本周的思路发信站: BBS (Wed Nov 14 01:46:58 2007), 转信GS 300 我不知道。这个心理分析实在是很到位。我作为一个青蛙正在经历这样的心理煎熬【 在 qiuzhihaoyue (秋之皓月) 的大作中提到: 】: 大跌之后... 个个吓破苦胆... 有钱的不敢买... 浅套的, 解套就逃, 小利的抓了就跑: ...: 乐坏了MM,一边拉一边收便宜筹码...: GS, 明天新高... 4周内$300+...发信人: qiuzhihaoyue (秋之皓月), 信区: Stock标 题: Re: 综述一下俺本周的思路发信站: BBS (Wed Nov 14 02:03:00 2007)【 在 shakeham (傻咸) 的大作中提到: 】: 这个有点悬了: 连续跳空三连阳: 兵书中记载的强庄股杀空大法: 可是为什么您能肯定他们会祭出此招？: 杀空杀多很多招，想听听秋大为什么认定此计: ..前4天的直泻...奠定这三天的急拉....嘿嘿...上下左右4面抽, 抽的你一败涂地...
Saturday, November 3, 2007
转个秋老大的帖
My short list:AAPL/GOOG/RIMM/AMZN/EDU/ISRG/DRYS/GRMN/CME/NYX/BIDUYes, I short everything above upper BB, except ADR names related to PTRMy long list:KBH/USG/TOL/C/WFR/GS/BSC/LEH/CAT/AIG/ACH/LDK/RCH/PTR/SNP/CEO/NTES/FFIV/ATHN/COP/HNP/SBUX/MPEL/LFTYes, I buy everything sitting near 200EMA or below lower BB, and hold until they move back to upper BB for sell…I am very patient, and as long as I believe what I have is a solid company…I can hold until it gives me a nice profit…1 year… or 5 year… what ever works for me…I only do profit taking… never cut my legs… this is the way how option works… the money I initially put in is the max risk I am facing…The one you think is a trash… I pick it up, and hold wait until it shining again; when everyone else is chasing those trash I picked up a while back… I sell those, and searching for the new trashes you guys are dumping…today,then sell them back to you when they are shining again…Haha… I am not a HH, just an ugly trash pick-up guy wondering outside of your house and searching jewelries in you guys’ trash cans…Most people does throw out their treasures when they are in a bad mood…
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