Tuesday, May 22, 2007
MaoXian -- Trading for Dummies -12
Superconductor Technologies, 30-minute Chart
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock on Friday, November 14?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock on Friday, November 14?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day?
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it was unusually active, and very volatile.
2) Up. You’d be looking long.
3) Long at 6.02 on a buy stop above the 11:30 down bar.
4) Initial Protective Stop: 5.90. (max. 1.99%)
5) Right after you enter the position or lunchtime, whichever comes first.
6) End of day. Could sell half, carry half, or just close it all at once.
SCON was a straightforward long play. 4000 shares was a decent size to buy given the initial risk of around 2%. The stock closed at $6.41 for a gain of 6.48% from entry… reward to risk at better than 3:1.
Everybody knows the four cardinal rules of trading, but so few people follow them:
Trade with the trend
Cut losses short
Let profits run
Manage risk
Intraday sentiment started the day flattish to down then broke quite hard in the afternoon with a burst of selling. This helped the PRSF position out but was detrimental to the SCON long.
MaoXian -- Trading for Dummies -11
Novell, 30-minute Chart
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock on Wednesday, November 12?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock on Wednesday, November 12?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day?
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it was unusually active, and very volatile.
2) Up. You’d be looking long.
3) Long at 8.35 on a buy stop above the 11:30 down bar.
4) Initial Protective Stop: 8.22. (max. 1.56%)
5) Right after you enter the position or lunchtime, whichever comes first.
6) End of day. Could sell half, carry half, or just close it all at once.
……….
NOVL was unusually active (it did 29,000+ trades on the day) and gave a very nice, narrow range down bar to execute against, with initial risk at only 1.56%. 4000 shares was a nice drop-in-an-ocean-of-liquidity position size. The stock closed at $8.97 giving a gain of 7.43% from entry for a reward to risk ratio of around 4.75 : 1.
The trouble that some folks have is that they’re always thinking in terms of “2B tops” and worried about getting trapped or picked off, which makes them unable to enter strongly trending markets. Catching big trending days (like yesterday) is where you make the big money. Trying to scalp 2 points a day by gaming the little traps in the S&P futures is going to make you old, tired, and cynical really fast.
The broad market moved up strongly as my intraday sentiment chart indicates (see below), so I was looking long obviously. Anyone who was looking short hasn’t learned the lesson Jim Croce taught when he wrote the popular song, You Don’t Mess Around With The Trend:
‘You don’t tug on Superman’s cape
You don’t spit into the wend
You don’t pull the mask off the old Lone Ranger
And you don’t mess around with the trend’
MaoXian -- Trading for Dummies -10
Akamai Technologies, 30-minute Chart
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock on Thursday, October 30?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock on Thursday, October 30?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day?
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it was unusually active, and very volatile.
2) Up. You’d be looking long.
3) Long at 7.76 on a buy stop above the 11:00 inside bar.
4) Initial Protective Stop: 7.58. (max. 2.32%)
5) Right after you enter the position or lunchtime, whichever comes first.
6) End of day. Could sell half, carry half, or just close it all at once.
AKAM was extremely active doing about 38,000 trades on the day, so you couldn’t miss it. The stock closed at $8.03 giving a gain of about 3.5% from entry. The initial risk of 2.32% would give a fairly unsatisfactory reward to risk ratio of 1.5 : 1, but AKAM was flying so fast it would have been prudent to move the initial stop up to $7.69 very quickly, which would have resulted in a much sweeter ratio (4:1).
Remember that once you know what to watch for, the real trick is learning good money management, and most people get bogged down looking for some “system” when they should really be thinking about how to manage risk.
Screen capture of my intraday Watch List:
MaoXian -- Trading for Dummies -9
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock on Wednesday, September 17?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock on Wednesday, September 17?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day?
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it was unusually active, and very volatile.
2) Up. You’d be looking long.
3) Long at 2.46 on a buy stop above the 11:30 bar.
4) Initial Protective Stop: 2.38. (max 3.25%)
5) Right after you enter the position or lunchtime, whichever comes first.
6) End of day. Could sell half, carry half, or just close it all at once.
MaoXian -- Trading for Dummies -8
Apollo Group, 30-minute Chart
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock on Thursday, August 28?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock on Thursday, August 28?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day?
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it was unusually active, and very volatile … (APOL became a top unusual suspect on 8/27.)
2) Up. You’d be looking long.
3) Long at 62.09 on a buy stop above the 11:00 bar.
4) Tighter: 61.86. Looser: 61.81.
5) Right after you enter the position or lunchtime, whichever comes first.
6) End of day. Could sell half, carry half, or just close it all at once.
Cat:
Trading for Dummies Time: 6:00 pm (utc+8) Comments (0)
MaoXian -- Trading for Dummies -7
Flamel Technologies, 30-minute Chart
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock on Wednesday, August 27?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock on Wednesday, August 27?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day?
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it was unusually active, and very volatile.
2) Up. You’d be looking long.
3) Long at 26.81 on a buy stop above the 11:00 bar.
4) Tighter: 26.62. Looser: 26.43.
5) Right after you enter the position or lunchtime, whichever comes first.
6) Stopped out on 3:00 bar.
MaoXian -- Trading for Dummies -6
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock on Tuesday, August 26?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock on Tuesday, August 26?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day?
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it was unusually active, and very volatile.
2) Up. You’d be looking long.
3) Long at 1.89 on a buy stop above the 11:30 bar.
4) Tighter: 1.83. Looser: 1.82.
5) Right after you enter the position or lunchtime, whichever comes first.
6) Stopped out on 1:30 bar.
MaoXian -- Trading for Dummies -5
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock on Monday, August 25?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock on Monday, August 25?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day?
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it was unusually active, and very volatile.
2) Down. You’d be looking short.
3) Short at 10.54 on sell stop below the 11:00 bar.
4) Tighter: 10.60. Looser: 10.68.
5) Right after you enter the position or lunchtime, whichever comes first.
6) End of day. Could cover half, carry half, or just close it all at once.
MaoXian -- Trading for Dummies -4
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock on Friday, August 22?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock on Friday, August 22?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day?
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it was unusually active, and very volatile.
2) Up. You’d be looking long.
3) Attempted long with buy stops above 10:30, 11:00, 11:30, and Noon Bars.
4) No fill, so no stop.
5) Right after you weren’t filled off the noon bar.
6) No fill, so no exit.
MaoXian -- Trading for Dummies -3
I didn’t plan to write another Q&A but I got deluged with email asking me to show a play on the short side, so here it is. When something cracks as badly as IIJI did there’s a good chance of a violent snap-back, which is a risk you have to be aware of. But IIJI just continued to collapse, so you had that going for you, which was nice (written with Carl Spackler in mind).
One sensitive soul wrote in to ask if I wasn’t giving away the keys to the kingdom with these how-to posts. The answer is that good trading is 10% methodology and 90% psychology. People defeat themselves. It doesn’t matter how often you repeat basic trading principles when almost no one will practice them.
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock yesterday?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock yesterday?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day?
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it was unusually active, and very volatile.
2) Down. You’d be looking short.
3) Short at 5.59 on a sell stop below the 11:30 bar.
4) Tighter: 5.68. Looser: 5.76. (These are buy-to-cover stops.)
5) Right after you enter the position or lunchtime, whichever comes first.
6) End of day. Could cover half, carry half, or just close it all at once.
MaoXian -- Trading for Dummies -2
Tired of these repetitive lessons yet? Well I am, so this is my last one this week. But it’s important to make sure that you understand these very basic trading principles.
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock yesterday?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock yesterday?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day?
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it was unusually active, and very volatile.
2) Up. You’d be looking long.
3) Long at 12.19 on a buy stop above the 10:30 bar. (There was also an opportunity to enter above the 12 noon bar.)
4) Tighter: 12.12. Looser: 12.03.
5) Right after you enter the position or lunchtime, whichever comes first.
6) End of day. Could sell half, carry half, or just close it all at once.
Back in the ancient past (1997?), I hung out at Avid Traders Chat. There were a bunch of nice, bright people who congregated there to chat about the markets and trading: alice, barbarian, bondzai, colby, craig, dr. doom (Teresa, one of the few women), fiendbear, grizzly, guliver, humble, jacad (later known as samurai), jasbond, jwhite, mina, mitstop, notop, oleman, soup, swtrans, temple, topxprt, twocents. I can’t remember everyone. I was modestly known as ’smartmoney.’
Many of us pretended to be more savvy than we really were, but everyone contributed something and it was a pleasant place to shoot the bull (no pun intended). The most revered chatter was a retiree in Florida who went by the handle ‘oleman.’ Here’s some of the common sense advice about trading that he posted at Avid back in the day: The Collected Wisdom of ‘oleman.’ It’s good stuff and should be read closely.
MaoXian -- Trading for Dummies -1
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock last Friday?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock last Friday?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day?
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it’s unusually active, and very volatile.
2) Up. You’d be looking long.
3) Long at 11.83 on a buy stop above the 11:30 bar.
4) Tighter: 11.44. Looser: 11.34.
5) Right after you enter the position or lunchtime, whichever comes first.
6) End of day. Could sell half, carry half, or just close it all at once.
Cat:
Trading for Dummies Time: 6:00 pm (utc+8) Comments (0)
Monday, May 21, 2007
Simple System for Beginners -----AnomalyResearch
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=37520
trading as having four elements
i look at trading as having four elements (for the discretionary trader)
1) emotional. arguably the most important. you are your own worst enemy. your emotions (fear, hope, greed, euphoria, panic) will work against you. that's how the market is designed, as a dynamic feedback system which is the aggregated results of all traders. have to master yourself before you can master the market
2) business plan. have a business plan. WRITE IT OUT. follow it. trading is a business. every trade is a business decision. your trading capital is your most important business asset. protect it
3) your trading methodology. this is what most traders ONLY concentrate on, but without 1 and usually 2, even a positive EV 3 will result in failure. but assuming 1 and 2, having a positive expectancy methodology is key
4) your execution skills. even with the above 3, you have to be able to execute trades. iow, being very familiar with your order entry system, and being able to work the book a little can help as well. after all, being paid the spread is much better than paying it
Swing trading pullback method ---baggerlord
Hi, I'm not sure how many longer term traders there are here, but i wanted to put up a little method I have been working on. I guess it could even be considered position trading. I am going totally off of EOD data because I don't want to have to sit at the computer.
Classic Geometric Patterns and Narrow Range Setups (NR7)
This is a stock that came up on my scan. There are some pluses and minuses to it, but let the market, specifically volume, give you the clue as to what to do.If you look back on this chart alone, you'll see this pattern repeated, followed by some nice moves. Although it appears I have drawn a simple rising wedge, the scan is actually for NR7/ID's with a low near term historical volatility. Essentially, these criteria quantify the triangles, wedges, pennants, and flags.It is a fact that volatility cycles. And it is a fact that stocks trend and consolidate. Combining the two facts produces this setup.
Attachment: forest oil cp (new)- daily.jpgThis has been downloaded 3510 time(s).
Post from inandlong:here is one that occured Monday. The symbol is CLE Claires Store Inc. BJ looks very similar so both can be studied as very nice examples of the NR7ID at work. BJ is BJ's Wholesale Club, so I guess there was some retail thing going on. LTD and TGT were also on the list but they were victims of the nemesis of this setup, the outside day. And yet, there is a positive to that too.
Take a look at the CLE chart. Starting from the left, there is a violet line beneath an NR4ID. The NR4 is another "popular" range, so you can expect it to work too. The real deal though is that it is an inside day, which manifests compressed volatility.
The brown line is just beneath an inside day. The two blue lines indicate NR7ID's. The volatility was not as low for the second one as it was the first, but in both cases there is some sideways action prior to the next move.
This trade is intended to be a 1-4 day trade using trailing stops. I have rarely traded this setup per se, but have looked at it on and off for years. I am presently working it in to my trading plan.
The nemesis of this setup is the outside day. But, the beauty of this setup is that even an outside day can be profitable. The proper way to trade this setup is to have a stop and reverse order in at the opposite extreme from your entry. The narrowness of the narrow range day makes the loss very reasonable, and many times the reverse negates the loss, or very nearly does so.
One way to filter the trades is to determine the limit of risk you are willing to accept, and take only those trades that are within that limit. Another way is to take only those trades that are in the same direction as the prevailing trend.
The profit target on these types of trades should be consistent with the reward: risk ratio you select. The minimum acceptable is 1:1, so if the length of the ID bar is .50, then the profit target is at least .50.
DMI/ADX consistently works ------nyc-hotshot
I had mentioned the DMI in a Stochastics thread and got like 10 people mailing me about it, so I figured the best way to discuss it would be a new thread.
Sunday, May 20, 2007
Trader28---------MACD(12,26,9)+ZEROLINE
09-20-06 09:12 PM
It is a good interesting thread, it has reached 60 pages by now.Just a quick summary on the original method given by trader28.
1) Use 10min MACD as trend and momentum indication. When MACD>=0, looks for buy signal. When MACD<=0, looks for sell signal. 2) With reference to 10min MACD indication, use 2min MACD for trade entry purpose. When MACD line is above zero line, buy when MACD signal line crosses up the MA line. 3) When MACD is below zero line, buy when MACD signal line cross up the zero line. 4) Usually the 9SMA on price gives early trend indication for trade action. 5) Exit trade when $200 target met or 10 min later ever comes first for ER. 6) Avoid 1st half hour and lunch hour. Is the essence correct ? Anyone has better success rate with some variation ?
CharlesTrader------Kwik Pop
Looked at the Kwik Pop web page, and their chart examples for Tradestation. They appear to use the following:
1. 24 hour chart
2. 150 Tick chart
The attached chart is an attempt to simulate what I see on the Kwik Pop examples.
1. 24 hour chart
2. 150 Tick chart
3. 3 Period SMA Displaced forward 2 bars
4. 3 Period SMA Displaced backward 2 bars
5. MACD showing histogram of MACD/MACD Avg Difference
6. Long Term MACD is 5 times the Short term MACDKwik Pop claims to look at 18 conditions, I'm only looking at 4.
For short trade, Forward Displaced SMA must be above Backward Displace SMA , Price must be below Forward Displaced SMA, both Long Term and Short Term Momentum must be negative.I like this.Maybe one day I can dream up 18 conditions to analyze, but for now 4 will do.Charles
Attachment: kwik pop chart.jpgThis has been downloaded 371 time(s).
carlito ----- 89 sma and a 14 sma chanel
this method can be day traded on the forex on 5 min 15 min and 30 minutes, to be sure i operate with the trend I have 2 filters :
1) I draw a 89 sma and a 14 sma chanel (that means 14 sma of high and a 14 smaof low).
2)I have also put a 60/130/45 macd histogram but i didn't draw it as a histogram i have chosen to draw it as a line : when it is above 0 that means the higher time frame is bullish.
3) When I see a macd signal (cross of of MA 's in aggreement with the 0 line ,or cross of 0 line by the fast MA) I look for a confirmation of my trend filters one filter is enough, , if both are ok it is better of course.
On this chart : the big black dot : 89 smathe
purple dots : mean the prices are below the 14 chanelthe
green dots : mean the prices are above the 14 chanel
The entry is when the macd cross , this cross happens below the 0 line and my 2 trend filters are ok so let's go short!I also whant the prices to be under 14 chanel when i go short.
I am fench and not fluent in english il will post some of my trades next week (real trades).
I use a 25 stop loss that i reduce when the trade goes positive and my target is a pivot which gives me a profit > 25 pips, usually between 30 and 50 pips.I trade gbp 5 minutes time frame and plan to trade 15 minutes and 30 minute in the next weeks.
Good trades to every one
Attachment: trade exemple.jpgThis has been downloaded 457 time(s).
Monday, May 14, 2007
China Stock
BIDU, SINA, SOHU, NTES, CHINA,
FFHL, FXI, PGJ, GRRF, HMIN, JOBS, MPEL,EDU, FMCN, JASO, SOLF, STP, TSL,
http://www.cnanalyst.com/2007/05/china_pulse_512_1.html
ACH, CHL, LFC, PTR, SNP: ADR Report: Chinese ADRs Rally on Loosening of Investing Rules - MarketWatch, 5/11/07
BIDU, SINA, SOHU: Website Gets Funds - ShanghaiDaily.com, 5/12/07
BIDU, SINA, SOHU: Cyber Land Community Lures Cash - ShanghaiDaily.com, 5/12/07
CHINA: CDC Rises As Analyst Initiates at "Buy" - AP, 5/11/07
FFHL: Fuwei Films Reports Results from First Quarter 2007 - PR Newswire, 5/11/07
FXI, PGJ: Commercial Banks Win Nod to Invest in Foreign Securities - ShanghaiDaily.com, 5/12/07
GRRF: China Grentech Upgraded by WR Hambrecht - Briefing.com, 5/11/07
HMIN: Hotel Chain Eyes China, India - ShanghaiDaily.com, 5/12/07
JOBS: 51job Rises on Strong First Quarter - AP, 5/11/07
JOBS: Nation May Face Labor Shortage in 2010 - ChinaDaily.com.cn, 5/11/07
JOBS: Labor Shortage in 2009 Will Spur Wages Growth - ShanghaiDaily.com, 5/11/07
MPEL: Melco Set to Open Its 1st Macau Casino - AP, 5/12/07
Q1 2007 Earnings Schedule and Webcast LinksAggregating Daily Research about U.S.-Listed Chinese StocksChina Pulse - Aggregating Daily News about U.S.-Listed Chinese StocksUser's Guide to CNAnalyst.com
Solar stocks
MEMC Electronics (NYSE: WFR) -
Polysilicon supplier First Solar Inc. (Nasdaq: FSLR) -
Thin film solar cell manufacturer Evergreen Solar (Nasdaq: ESLR) - Uses string ribbon technology that uses less polysilicon.
Daystar Technologies (Nasdaq: DSTI) - Thin film solar cell manufacturer If we see more supply and prices stabilizing or declining starting next year then it benefits:
Suntech Power (NYSE: STP)
Sunpower Corp. (Nasdaq: SPWR) Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL)
Canadian Solar (Nasdaq: CSIQ)
Solarfun (Nasdaq: SOLF)
Wednesday, May 9, 2007
Move the Market StockScan
I use StockScans from StockCharts to create it:
Day Trade Stocks• For the last market close:[type = stock] and [country = us] and [daily sma(20,daily volume) > 750,000] and [ATR(14) > 1] and [Close <> 15.0] and [High - Open > .50] and [ Open - Low > .50] and [Yesterday High - Yesterday Open > .50] and [Yesterday Open - Yesterday Low > .50]
Today’s List:
AMZN, UNP, CSC, FSLR, SU, SPWR, VLO, WCG, MRO, AL, NOV, RVBD, LM, RTI.
- TraderD